Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/0351Z from Region 1660 (N11E12). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
456 km/s at 19/1715Z. Total IMF reached 7.7 nT at 18/2232Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5.8 nT at 18/2232Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for an
isolated minor storm interval, early on day one (20 Jan) in response to
the arrival of the 16 Jan CME. Predominately quiet conditions with a
chance for isolated unsettled periods is expected for days two and three
(21 - 22 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 107 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 015/018-008/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NTCurrent data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SKNuuk
Reykjavik
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