Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 January 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 19/0351Z from Region 1660 (N11E12). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 456 km/s at 19/1715Z. Total IMF reached 7.7 nT at 18/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5.8 nT at 18/2232Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for an isolated minor storm interval, early on day one (20 Jan) in response to the arrival of the 16 Jan CME. Predominately quiet conditions with a chance for isolated unsettled periods is expected for days two and three (21 - 22 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jan 107
  Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        19 Jan 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jan  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  015/018-008/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm55%20%20%

All times in UTC

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