Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 March 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 12/2246Z from Region 1692 (N09E35). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 348 km/s at 13/0120Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 12/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Mar), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Mar 123
  Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        13 Mar 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  007/008-016/020-013/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%45%30%
Minor storm05%25%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%65%40%

All times in UTC

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