Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 April 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Apr 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/0859Z from Region 1718 (N21W06). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr,
11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 389 km/s at
09/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1823Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1446Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 353 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12
Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 147 Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 006/007-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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