Viewing archive of Monday, 5 August 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Aug,
07 Aug, 08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 607 km/s at 05/0908Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 04/2102Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 04/2102Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2770
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 104
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 011/012-007/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
Major-severe storm | 40% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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