Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 August 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Aug,
08 Aug, 09 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
567 km/s at 05/2249Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2110Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/2249Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5207 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Aug,
08 Aug, 09 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 104 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 007/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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