Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 August 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 456 km/s at 25/0703Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/1005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1871 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Aug, 27 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (28 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Aug 113
  Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug 110/105/100
  90 Day Mean        25 Aug 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Aug  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  011/012-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%15%
Major-severe storm30%20%10%

All times in UTC

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