Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 November 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Nov 07 1315 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Nov 2013	156	016
08 Nov 2013	157	010
09 Nov 2013	157	006

Bulletin

Numerous C-class flares and three M-class flares were reported since yesterday's bulletin, the strongest of them being the M3.8 flare peaking at 13:46 UT yesterday in the Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890). The trailing part of this region (containing the delta sunspot) somewhat decayed, although this active region still keeps the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We expect continuing flaring activity on the M-level, with an X-class flare possible, but not very likely. Due to the current high level of the proton flux and the position of the Catania sunspot group 35 approaching the solar central meridian, a proton event is probable. The solar wind speed is currently low (around 360 km/s). However, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is elevated since the early hours of today (peak value 14 nT). The currently available data does not yet allow us to conclude if this increase is due to an interaction region with a faster flow or to an ICME. The north-south IMF component reached -9 nT and stayed negative during several hours, resulting in one interval of active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4) as reported by Dourbes, IZMIRAN and NOAA. We expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 106, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	098 - Based on 07 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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