Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 December 2013
Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC
Issued: 2013 Dec 31 1140 UTC
SIDC Forecast
Solar flares
Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Geomagnetism
Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
Solar protons
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
| 10cm flux | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2013 | 145 | 007 |
| 01 Jan 2014 | 145 | 020 |
| 02 Jan 2014 | 142 | 016 |
Bulletin
The flaring activity in the southern solar hemisphere continues at C-class level. The largest flare in the past day was a C5.6 flare originating in NOAA AR 11936 with peak time at 02:40 UT today. Afterwards, also NOAA AR 11938 produced a C2.0 flare, peaking at 05:32 UT. Both regions are expected to produce more C-flares in the coming hours. AR 11936, which has evolved to a beta-gamma-delta region, also has the potential to produce an M-class flare. We maintain the warning condition for proton events. STEREO-A/COR2 images show a CME at 07:08 UT, after a data gap. More data is needed for further analysis, but this event may originate near NOAA AR 11934, which is turning over the west limb. A possible glancing blow from this CME can occur late on January 3. STEREO-B/COR2 observed a faint CME on December 29 around 20:25 UT, possibly linked to the M-flare on that day. A glancing blow from this CME is possible on January 2. We expect minor geomagnetic storm conditions late on January 1 and early on January 2 (K_Dourbes up to 5) due to the arrival of a fast coronal hole wind stream and possible effects from the CME activity on December 29.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 091, based on 11 stations.Solar indices for 30 Dec 2013
| Wolf number Catania | /// |
| 10cm solar flux | 143 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 007 |
| AK Wingst | 002 |
| Estimated Ap | 002 |
| Estimated international sunspot number | 068 - Based on 17 stations |
Noticeable events summary
| Day | Begin | Max | End | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | ||||||||||
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
All times in UTC
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