Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 26 0625 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (26 Jan, 27
Jan) increasing to a chance for M-class flares on day three (28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
409 km/s at 24/2350Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2128Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0106Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (27 Jan), and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 133 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 006/005-007/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 25% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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