Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 January 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 26/1013Z from Region 1960 (S15W31). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 404 km/s at 26/1801Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (28 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (29 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
Class M20%35%35%
Class X01%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jan 138
  Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan 140/155/160
  90 Day Mean        26 Jan 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan   005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jan  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  007/008-011/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%05%
Minor storm05%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%15%
Major-severe storm25%35%05%

All times in UTC

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