Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
26/1013Z from Region 1960 (S15W31). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Jan) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (28 Jan,
29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
404 km/s at 26/1801Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Jan), quiet to active
levels on day two (28 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (29 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 138 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 140/155/160 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 007/008-011/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 35% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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