Viewing archive of Friday, 28 February 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
28/0048Z from Region 1991 (S25E38). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02
Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 543 km/s at 28/0650Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 27/2242Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 27/2128Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103
pfu at 28/0845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 261 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar). Protons are expected to cross
threshold on day one (01 Mar), are likely to cross threshold on day two
(02 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 171 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 015/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 014/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 009/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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