Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 March 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/1333Z from Region 1982 (S11W86). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03
Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at
01/0634Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 88 pfu at 28/2230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 236 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (02 Mar), have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (03 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (04 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 50% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 165 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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