Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 March 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
02/0012Z from Region 1982 (S11, L=205). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04
Mar, 05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
417 km/s at 01/2245Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 33 pfu at 01/2220Z. Electrons greater than
2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05
Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (03 Mar), have a
chance of crossing threshold on day two (04 Mar) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (05 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 70% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 161 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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