Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 March 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
29/1748Z from Region 2017 (N10W34). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 29/0321Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/2127Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0203Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Mar, 31 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 143 Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 29 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 006/005-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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