Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 April 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 13 2225 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/2017Z from Region 2037 (S10E30). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr,
16 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
413 km/s at 13/2027Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/2117Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/2146Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 35% | 40% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 137 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 016/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 009/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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