Viewing archive of Monday, 14 April 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
14/0438Z from Region 2036 (S18E13). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr,
17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
408 km/s at 14/0542Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/2255Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1732Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 150 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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