Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 May 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 11/0443Z from Region 2058 (S11E30). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at 11/1613Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0257Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 May), quiet levels on day two (13 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 May).
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 May 164
  Predicted   12 May-14 May 160/160/165
  90 Day Mean        11 May 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 May  011/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  009/008-006/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%20%

All times in UTC

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