Viewing archive of Monday, 1 December 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0641Z from Region 2222 (S21E03). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec,
04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
615 km/s at 01/2028Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/1748Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/2024Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 168 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 009/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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