Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 December 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
28/1759Z from Region 2248 (S19E07). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (29 Dec) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (30 Dec,
31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
433 km/s at 27/2257Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/1818Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/1841Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 646 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Dec,
30 Dec, 31 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 133 Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 007/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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