Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 December 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Dec 06 1401 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Dec 2014	134	015
07 Dec 2014	130	010
08 Dec 2014	128	005

Bulletin

The strongest flare in last 24 hours was the M1.5 flare (peaking at 12:25 UT) on December 5. The M-class flare was one more confined flare (SOHO/LASCO observations show data gap, however the SDO/AIA data do not show any on-disc signatures of the CME) which originated from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222). No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares and possibly also isolated M-class flares from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222) which still maintains beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Since this active region is approaching to the west solar limb (about S20 W58), eruptions and flaring activity originating from this active region might be accompanied with the particle event. We maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is currently about 480 km/s. The slow increase of the solar wind speed and density, concurrent with the strong increase of interplanetary magnetic field has started early today. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is elevated during the last 5 hours and it amounts about 21 nT, indicating possible arrival of the ICME of still unclear solar origin. If the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field turns to negative values we might expect active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 046, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	043 - Based on 09 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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