Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 February 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
12/0212Z from Region 2280 (S06W81). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (13 Feb) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (14 Feb,
15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 399 km/s at
11/2229Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1027Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Feb, 14 Feb)
and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 128 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 120/125/130 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 008/008-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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