Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 March 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 11/1622Z from Region 2297 (S16E14). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 458 km/s at 11/0446Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 11/0712Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/0651Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 900 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (13 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Mar 132
  Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        11 Mar 141

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Mar  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  013/018-021/030-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%30%
Minor storm10%25%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm45%60%35%

All times in UTC

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