Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 March 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
12/1408Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
440 km/s at 12/1823Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0005Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/0515Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Mar, 14
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Mar). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Mar,
14 Mar, 15 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 127 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 128/128/130 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 021/030-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 60% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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