Viewing archive of Monday, 16 March 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/1058Z from Region 2297 (S17W52). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 441 km/s at 16/1957Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 16/1615Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0522Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 16/0755Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (18 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (19 Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton60%60%60%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Mar 117
  Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        16 Mar 139

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Mar  011/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  012/015-014/020-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm50%60%50%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/12/08X2.2
Last M-flare2024/12/23M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm2024/12/17Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
November 2024152.5 -13.9
December 2024106.6 -45.9
Last 30 days116.1 -41.8

This day in history*

Solar flares
12015M6.75
21998M3.34
32013M2.36
42013M1.97
52001M1.69
DstG
12002-67
22000-62G2
31989-60
42014-57
51982-53G1
*since 1994

Social networks