Issued: 2015 Jul 14 1232 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
14 Jul 2015 | 110 | 010 |
15 Jul 2015 | 110 | 011 |
16 Jul 2015 | 108 | 007 |
NOAA AR 2381 produced a C1.0 flare peaking at 9:25 UT on July 14. More C flaring is possible. During the last 24 hours, solar wind speed gradually decreased from about 520 to 450 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between 6 and 9 nT. Bz was mostly below -4 nT between about 14:30 and 20:00 UT on July 13, which resulted in a geomagnetic storm (NOAA Kp = 5 between 18h and 21h UT, K Dourbes = 6 between 20h and 22h UT). Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 5) with possible minor storm excursions (K Dourbes = 5) are expected on July 14 and 15. Quiet to unsettled conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are likely on July 16.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 047, based on 13 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 044 |
10cm solar flux | 110 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 043 |
AK Wingst | 035 |
Estimated Ap | 030 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 055 - Based on 19 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | End | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
None |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 50GW at 04:56 UTC
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 01:32 UTC
Moderate M2.5 flare
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.45)
Begin Time: 01/04/2025 06:45 UTC Maximum Time: 01/04/2025 06:45 UTC Duration: 1 minutes. Peak flux: 190 sfu
Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
Last M-flare | 2025/04/01 | M2.5 |
Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/27 | Kp5 (G1) |
Spotless days | |
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Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
April 2025 | 152.5 -2.1 |
Last 30 days | 130.7 -17.9 |