Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 October 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/0241Z from old Region 2422 (S20, L=097). There are currently 1
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 533 km/s at 04/1449Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/0144Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 04/0039Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 088 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 010/012-009/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Fairbanks, AKLatest news
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
Thursday, 10 April 2025
23:00 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 22:47 UTC
20:45 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 50GW at 21:37 UTC
01:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 01:41 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/08 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/06 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 141.4 +7.2 |
| Last 30 days | 137.9 +0.4 |