Viewing archive of Monday, 5 October 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07
Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 504 km/s at 05/0434Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/2139Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0458Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1899
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Oct), quiet to active
levels on day two (07 Oct) and active to minor storm levels on day three
(08 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 083 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 016/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 009/008-012/014-025/036
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 35% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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