Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 October 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
13/1411Z from Region 2434 (S08E74). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct,
16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
617 km/s at 13/0531Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0018Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1512Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10091 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (14
Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 096 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 105/110/115 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 016/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 018/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 021/030-021/030-021/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 65% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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