Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 October 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/1338Z from Region 2434 (S08E60). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct,
17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 603 km/s at 14/0639Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/0357Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/2118Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7388
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (15 Oct, 16
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 101 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 100/105/115 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 018/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 019/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 014/018-014/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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