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Viewing archive of Friday, 13 November 2015

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 13/0128Z from Region 2452 (S08E14). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at 13/2018Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 13/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/1320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 88813 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Nov 103
  Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov 105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        13 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Nov  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  017/022-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm55%40%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
Reykjavik
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.31nT), the direction is slightly South (-8.26nT).

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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