Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 November 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Nov 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Nov,
16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
558 km/s at 14/0259Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2100Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2734 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (15 Nov,
16 Nov, 17 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 106 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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