Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 December 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/0628Z from Region 2458 (N09W79). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at
03/0255Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/1805Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1537 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 095 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 007/008-007/008-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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