Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 December 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Dec 24 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Dec 2015	137	016
25 Dec 2015	137	012
26 Dec 2015	137	006

Bulletin

NOAA ARs 2472 and 2473 (Catania numbers 4 and 5 respectively) have beta-gamma configuration of their photospheric magnetic field and continue to produce flaring activity. The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was a complex event early today, with the first peak at 02:12 UT (M1.1 in the NOAA AR 2473) and the second peak at 06:16 UT (C5.9 in the NOAA AR 2473 and a nearly simultaneous X-ray flux increase in NOAA AR 2472). The event was associated with a CME first visible in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 06:12 UT. The full angular width of the CME is not clear yet and will be further evaluated as more LASCO data will be available, although it is unlikely to be a halo CME. We expect C-class flaring in the next 24 hours, with around 50 percent chance for an M-class flare. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with an intermediate speed (around 500 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude has been slightly elevated (7-8 nT) in the recent hours, so mostly unsettled with occasionally active geomagnetic conditions were reported. We expect unsettled to possibly active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 058, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Dec 2015

Wolf number Catania	089
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	066 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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