Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 January 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jan 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan,
12 Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 476 km/s at
10/0307Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0356Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2874 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (12 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 109 Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 110/108/105 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 006/006-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 55% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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