Viewing archive of Monday, 11 January 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jan 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan,
13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
655 km/s at 11/1843Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 11/1855Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/1809Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2146 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (12 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (14 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 108 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 108/105/100 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 014/018-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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