Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 February 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
17/0501Z from Region 2497 (N13W89). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (18 Feb) and expected to be very
low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (19 Feb, 20
Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 645 km/s at 17/0627Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/0001Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/0026Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4875
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (19 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (20 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (18 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 100 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 025/042 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 024/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 015/018-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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