Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 March 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/0929Z from Region 2521 (N19W21). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Mar,
17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 15/0347Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 14/2209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 14/2210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 094 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 021/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 015/022-012/016-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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