Viewing archive of Monday, 7 March 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Mar,
09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 07/1236Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 06/2250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 06/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 354 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 Mar, 09 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 094 Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 019/031 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 015/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 008/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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