Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 March 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Mar 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Mar,
08 Mar, 09 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 06/2055Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 06/1658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 06/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 706 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 096 Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 014/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 017/022-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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