Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 April 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 02/2011Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 02/1406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 02/1522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 625 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (04 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (05 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 082 Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 082/082/078 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 015/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 015/018-008/008-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 25% | 55% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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