Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 April 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Apr,
07 Apr, 08 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 439 km/s at 05/0103Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
05/0132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
05/1105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3924 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Apr, 08
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 083 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 083/084/087 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 007/008-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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