Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 June 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jun 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 625 km/s at 05/2004Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 05/1418Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 05/1241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 917 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (07 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (08
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 079 Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 078/078/082 90 Day Mean 05 Jun 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 018/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 016/020-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun to 08 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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