Viewing archive of Monday, 6 June 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jun 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 694 km/s at 06/0322Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 06/0007Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 06/0006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 801 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 079 Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 06 Jun 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 023/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 021/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 009/010-005/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun to 09 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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