Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 August 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Aug 23 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Aug 2016	082	008
24 Aug 2016	084	024
25 Aug 2016	086	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was very low. The new region (NOAA 2579) that started to develop in the previous period continued to develop and grow and displayed several minor B flares. The new region that turned into view in the South East was numbered NOAA 2580 and is fairly simple while old region 2578 seems to redevelop some spots. As flux continues to emerge and the region 2579 continues to grow region 2579 is the most likely source for flaring. C flaring from region 2579 is quite possible but overall chances are judged about equal that conditions will remain quiet. Proton fluxes are at background levels and expected to remain so. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

Solar wind conditions were fairly nominal with solar wind speed in the 360 to 390 km/s range and total magnetic field initially stable around 5 nT. During the morning the magnetic field increased gradually to around 10 nT presently, with after 10:00UT also the Bz component becoming pronounced negative (close to -10nT). Tomorrow an increase in solar wind speed may be anticipated corresponding to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (both K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 1-2) but activity can be expected to increase following the increase in magnetic field strength and the prolonged period of negative Bz. The arrival of a high speed stream tomorrow may further cause periods of active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 045, based on 28 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Aug 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	080
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	028 - Based on 32 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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