Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 April 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/1956Z from Region 2644 (N12W52). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02
Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 31/2104Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 01/1038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
01/0958Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 41365 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03
Apr, 04 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 101 Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 105/102/100 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 021/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 014/018-014/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå
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