Viewing archive of Monday, 3 April 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
03/1429Z from Region 2644 (N13W79). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Apr) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day two (05 Apr) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class
flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (06 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 466 km/s at 02/2105Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
03/0534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
03/0841Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 53552 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (04 Apr, 05 Apr) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (06 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| Class M | 70% | 50% | 35% |
| Class X | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 108 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 108/102/096 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 005/005-006/006-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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