Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 May 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 07/0243Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 06/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/0315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1535 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May), quiet levels on
day two (09 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 May).
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 072 Predicted 08 May-10 May 072/070/070 90 Day Mean 07 May 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 008/008-005/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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