Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 June 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
03/1456Z from Region 2661 (N06E39). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun,
05 Jun, 06 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 03/1916Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 03/1126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
03/1128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 601 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (04 Jun) and quiet
levels on days two and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 078 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 012/015-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
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