Viewing archive of Friday, 18 August 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (19 Aug, 20 Aug) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 18/0659Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 18/0101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 18/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20
Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 080 Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 082/084/085 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 020/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 015/018-012/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
AR 13932 12Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 11Strong far side CME 335Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1353Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1750
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 114 -43.9 |