Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 July 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jul 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 04/2007Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/1833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 04/1856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 145 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jul 070
  Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        04 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm25%10%10%

All times in UTC

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Active geomagnetic conditions

Observed Kp: 4
Threshold reached: 01:33 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Reykjavik
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.49nT), the direction is slightly South (-4.32nT).

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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